Why is Russia Poised to Invade Ukraine?

Why is Putin Poised to Invade Ukraine?

In November 2019, Russia began amassing troops on its border with Ukraine. That troop positioning was ramped up in January 2022. Russia denied it was preparing for an invasion, but it seemed obvious to just about everyone they were planning on invading.

Separatist Regions Recognized

However, the 2022 Winter Olympics were scheduled to run from February 2-20, 2022 in Beijing, China. Given Russian President Vladimir Putin’s cozy relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping, it was assumed Putin would wait until after the Olympics were over to invade. And sure enough, one day after the Olympics ended, on February 21, 2022, Putin recognized “separatist” regions of Ukraine that border Russia as independent from Ukraine. That pronouncement set off fighting in those eastern Ukrainian areas, and Russia sent in troops to “keep the peace.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday [2/21/22] recognized two breakaway regions of Ukraine as independent and told Russia’s defense ministry to deploy troops into the two regions to “keep the peace,” heightening tension with the West over Ukraine (Newsmax. US to Announce).

A Reuters witness saw tanks and other military hardware moving through the separatist-controlled city of Donetsk after Putin formally recognized the breakaway regions and ordered the deployment of Russian forces to “keep the peace” (Newsmax. Putin Orders).

Putin calls those Russian troops “peacekeepers.” That has long been the designation by tyrants when their troops occupy a foreign country.

Upset About NATO Expansion

Why is Putin doing this? The main reason is the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Back in the 1980s, US President Ronald Reagan made an agreement with then Russian President Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would not expand eastward. But after Reagan and Gorbachev left office, NATO did indeed expand eastward, beginning with under President Bill Clinton. Fourteen countries have since been added to NATO, with several of those nations being former members of the Soviet Union (USSR).

As a result, NATO now almost butts up against Russia. If Ukraine were to be added to NATO, there would be no buffer between Russia and NATO, as Ukraine borders Russia. It is in fact a long border, as Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe, after Russia. Ukraine is also rich in natural resources and has five ports on the Black Sea.

What Putin wanted was a guarantee that Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO, but Biden and the European NATO nations were unwilling to give him that guarantee.

Russia has made clear it wants a written commitment that Ukraine will never be allowed to join NATO and that the alliance’s military equipment will not be positioned in former Soviet states, demands that the Biden administration has made clear are non-starters (Trib Live/ AP. Biden, Putin).

Claims Ukraine Part of Russia

Many pundits think Putin wants to reformulate the USSR. Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union, and Putin claims it had been a part of Russia for centuries, dating back to the 900s. But Ukraine has now been independent of the USSR longer than it was a part of it.

With the 1991 break-up of the Soviet Union, Russia lost control of 14 former republics it had previously dominated, but the loss of Ukraine was the most painful. The two had been linked since the 9th century when Kyiv became the capital of the ancient state of Rus; in 988 its ruler, Grand Prince Vladimir, introduced Orthodox Christianity. From 1654, Russia and Ukraine were united by treaty under the rule of the Russian tsar.

The two countries speak closely related languages and later formed, with Belarus, the Slav core of the Soviet Union. Many Russians feel a connection with Ukraine that they do not feel with other former Soviet republics in the Baltics, Caucasus and Central Asia (Reuters. Explainer: Why)

In a lengthy televised address packed with grievances against the West, a visibly angry Putin said eastern Ukraine was ancient Russian land….

In his address, Putin delved into history as far back as the Ottoman empire and as recent as the tensions over NATO’s eastward expansion. His demands that Ukraine drop its long-term goal of joining the Atlantic military alliance have been repeatedly rebuffed by Kyiv [the capital of Ukraine] and NATO states.

“I deem it necessary to make a decision that should have been made a long time ago - to immediately recognize the independence and sovereignty of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic,” Putin said (Newsmax. Putin Orders).

Most Ukrainians consider themselves to be Ukrainians, not Russians. But about 7% of the population is sympathetic towards Russia, with those sympathizers mostly being in the separatist regions Putin has now declared to be independent and wants to be a part of Russia.

Moreover,

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s objective is to keep Ukraine – the second-largest country on the continent – from making common cause with the democracies of Europe. “What motivates Putin,” said [former NATO Ambassador Ivo] Daalder, “is a concern about the independence of Ukraine, a worry that a functioning, successful, prosperous democracy in Ukraine poses a direct threat to his rule, because it will give people in Russia the idea that they, too, could enjoy what Ukraine enjoys, and rise up against his autocratic rule” (CBS News. What).

Response by the USA and NATO

With that background, President Joe Biden gave a speech in the afternoon of February 22^nd. He said the actions by Russia in the separatist regions constituted the beginning of an invasion. As such, he was announcing sanctions on Russian banks. But that was about it. He said more sanctions were coming, if Putin ordered a full-scale invasion.

Biden had previously indicated he would only sanction Putin a little bit if he only invaded a little bit. We are now seeing he results of that gutless declaration. Putin took advantage and only invaded a little bit.

Biden administration officials said Putin’s move did not trigger a broad package of sanctions that the United States and its allies have been working on if Russia invades Ukraine because Russia already had troops in the region. Instead the White House announced separate, less severe and more targeted sanctions, in response (Newsmax. US to).

The United States, the European Union and Britain announced new sanctions on Russia on Tuesday [2/22/22] after Moscow’s recognition of two separatist regions in Ukraine as independent entities. Chief among their targets: Russian banks and their ability to operate internationally.

Yet the impact of the new sanctions is likely to be minimal. Western governments - for now - are preferring to keep the much larger sanctions packages that they have planned in reserve should the crisis escalate (Reuters. Explainer: Western).

Japan’s sanctions include prohibiting the issuance of Russian bonds in Japan and freezing the assets of certain Russian individuals as well as restricting travel to Japan, Kishida said (Reuters. Japan).

The USA and our allies did increase those sanctions a bit the next day, but they are still minimal.

The United States and its allies unveiled more sanctions against Russia on Wednesday [2/23/22] over its recognition of two separatist areas in eastern Ukraine, while making clear they were keeping tougher measures in reserve in case of a full-scale invasion by Moscow….

The steps follow measures announced on Tuesday, including freezing the approval of a new Russian gas pipeline by Germany, and imposing new U.S. sanctions on Russian banks.

But none of the measures announced so far directly targets President Vladimir Putin himself, or is expected to have severe medium-term consequences for Moscow, which is sitting on more than $630 billion in international reserves (Reuters. U.S. and allies).

Biden’s Fault?

That lack of backbone by Biden is why many conservative pundits are claiming Putin would not be doing this is Trump were still President. That is possible as it was under Obama/ Biden that Putin annexed Crimea. But Putin made no further aggressions while Trump was President. That could be because Trump had increased American support for Ukraine in the form of lethal weapons that Obama refused to provide. Most important among that weaponry were Javelin anti-tank missiles.

All of this was the background to the first impeachment of Trump that I discuss at length in my three-volume set Dems Cannot Beat Trump, So They Impeach Trump. Trump’s increased support of Ukraine was part of his defense. It also negated the claim Trump was somehow beholden to Russia. But now Biden is viewed by Putin as being as weak as Obama, and that could be why he made this move now. Or it could be because he thought the addition of Ukraine to NATO was soon coming and had to act before that happened

Whatever the case, Biden has spoken with Putin twice in recent weeks, but those talks accomplished nothing, showing Putin thinks he has nothing to fear from Biden. That is especially the case since Biden had ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine back in December.

Speaking to reporters as he departed the White House for Kansas City, Biden said he warned Putin he would impose sanctions “like none he’s ever seen” should the Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s border escalate into an assault. But he said the US would not dispatch its own forces to protect Ukraine, a stance that US officials have previously ruled out as well.

“That is not on the table,” he said. “We have a moral obligation and a legal obligation to our NATO allies if they were to attack under Article 5, that’s a sacred obligation. That obligation does not extend to … Ukraine.” Instead, Biden said he told Putin in direct terms that the economic consequences of an incursion would be devastating (CNN. Biden says).

Despite this declaration, Biden deployed 3,000 troops to NATO countries, with another 8,500 put on standby. But that number of troops is miniscule in comparison to the 200,000 troops Putin now has on the Ukrainian border. As such, Biden’s moves are more show than strength.

Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline

Tied up in all of the is the Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline. It was to provide natural gas from Russia to Germany. Biden approved the final certification of the pipeline, much to the charging of conservatives, given that he stopped the construction of the Keystone XL Pipeline from Alaska to the lower 48 states.

The Nord Stream 2 Pipeline is finished, but natural gas has not yet started flowing, as it still needs final certification from Germany. That certification is now on hold. Conservatives want Biden to make that hold permanent and have Germany purchase natural gas from us instead. Doing so would benefit my state, as Pennsylvania is rich in natural gas. But it would anger Putin, as that Nord Stream Pipeline represents great potential revenue for Russia.

Germany has taken steps to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Tuesday, as the West started taking punitive measures against Moscow over the Ukraine crisis….

Germany meets about a quarter of its energy needs with natural gas, a share that will increase in the coming years as the country switches off its last three nuclear power plants and phases out the use of coal. About half of the natural gas used in Germany comes from Russia (Newsmax. Germany).

Worldwide Repercussions

Given the preceding, these sanctions might hurt Germany more than Russia. They will also hurt the USA. Biden predicted in his February 22 speech that our energy prices will increase, leading to even greater inflation. But that just might be cover for his inability to bring those prices down.

Worse, all these sanctions could cause Russia and China to cozy up even closer. That alliance could prove disastrous for the rest of the world, including the USA.

A review of World Bank and United Nations trade data shows that since lesser sanctions were imposed in 2014 after Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea, China has emerged as its biggest export destination. New sanctions could prompt Russia to try to deepen its non-dollar denominated trade ties with Beijing in an effort to skirt the restrictions, said Harry Broadman, a former U.S. trade negotiator and World Bank official with China and Russia experience….

China remains Russia’s top supplier of imports, with mobile phones, computers, telecommunications gear, toys, textiles, clothing and electronics parts among top categories. Its share of Russian imports has risen since 2014, while those from Germany have declined markedly (Reuters. As sanctions).

Where this goes from here will be up to Putin, but Biden’s response will be a factor in how far Putin goes in his aggression, if he will be satisfied to just annex those separatist regions bordering Russia or if he will try to invade and take over all of Ukraine.

Now that Russian President Vladimir Putin has recognised the independence of separatist enclaves in eastern Ukraine and ordered in “peacekeeping” troops, the big question is: where will he stop?

Western countries have been warning for weeks that Moscow may be preparing for a possible all-out massed invasion to conquer its neighbour. Russia denies this, and Putin’s moves so far have stopped well short of such a scenario.

But a televised address by Putin on Monday night - in which he characterised the Ukrainian state and its leaders as illegitimate - added to fears that he may aim to subjugate Ukraine by force (Reuters. Factbox).

“He has questioned the right to sovereignty of Ukraine and he’s declared that this was a historic mistake, a historic accident that Ukraine is existing,” said Gerhard Mangott, a professor at Austria’s Innsbruck University and member of a group of Russia experts that meets yearly with Putin.

“So it’s most likely that his final ambition is to destroy this Ukrainian state, or at least make Ukraine divide into two separate halves,” he said, with Russia controlling the eastern part of the country (Reuters. Analysis: Putin).

Not knowing what Putin will do, Ukraine is preparing for a full-scale invasion:

Ukraine will introduce a nationwide state of emergency in which special restrictions will apply in order to keep the country calm and protect its economy amid fears of a Russian invasion, a senior Ukrainian security official said on Wednesday [2/23/22] (Reuters. Ukraine to impose).

Ukraine on Wednesday has started conscripting reservists aged 18-60 following a decree by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the armed forces said in a statement (Reuters. Ukraine starts).

A Weakened USA Under Biden

If Putting does orchestrate a full invasion of Ukraine, and is successful, then it will become a question of if he will try to expand further westward, possibly triggering a much greater war. Biden’s perceived weakness will be a factor in that potential progression. That perception is made worse by our military’s seeming weakness after the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan and its attention to wokery rather than military readiness. Our declining economic situation, with out-of-control inflation and dependence on debt, also makes the USA vulnerable and less able to put forth a threatening front to Russia.

The results of these disastrous policies are impossible to conceal. America’s large, dynamic economy and its ability to project military power have faded…

President Biden is rapidly becoming a metaphor for a great nation in decline. In fact, the Biden Administration is embarked on a course that is nothing short of catastrophic for the Nation’s economy and its security (1945).

But things could even worse if Putin does not get what he wants from the Ukrainian invasion:

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis (New York Times. Russia Issues).

This is all very scary stuff, and it is all happening under the spineless leadership of President Biden.

The references below chronicle the leadup to this invasion by Russia into Ukraine and the recognition of those separatist areas.

For a follow-up to this article, see Full-Scale Invasion.

References:

1945. Joe Biden is Driving the Nation to War with Russia and Collapse.

Air Force Times. More US military jets turn to East Europe as possible Russian invasion of Ukraine looms.

American Military News. US sends another 80 tons of weapons to Ukraine; 260 tons total so far.

CBS News. Baltic nations to send missiles to Ukraine with U.S. support.

CBS News. What are Putin’s intentions in Ukraine?

CNN. Biden says US troops in Ukraine are off the table but promises withering sanctions if Russia invades.

Fox News. Biden to welcome German Chancellor Scholz to White House, discuss Russia-Ukraine situation.

Hot Air. Biden, Putin speak on brink of Russian invasion or non-invasion of Ukraine.

Just the News. Biden orders 3,000 U.S. troops to Europe to support allies in Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Just the News. Russia deploys 7,000 more troops near Ukraine border, U.S. official says.

Just the News. Russian state media accuses Ukrainian troops of violating ceasefire.

NBC News. Biden convenes National Security Council as violence escalates in Ukraine.

NBC News. Putin seizes world’s attention, forcing West to confront renewed Russian threat.

NBC News. Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine call to mobilize as Putin oversees nuclear drill.

NBC News. Russia-Ukraine crisis: Severe sanctions could trigger crippling Moscow response.

NBC News. To end Russia-Ukraine tensions, Vladimir Putin needs a way to save face.

Newsmax. Biden, Zelenskyy Clash Over Russian Invasion Threat.

Newsmax. Germany Suspends Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline.

Newsmax. Kremlin Says It Hopes Donbas Recognition Will Restore Calm; Still Open to Diplomacy.

Newsmax. Kremlin Says US Talk of Imminent Ukraine Invasion Is Baseless Hysteria.

Newsmax. Putin Orders Russian Troops to Ukraine After Recognizing Breakaway Regions.

Newsmax. Russia Says Some Troops Return to Base, Ukraine Reacts Cautiously.

Newsmax. Ukraine Reports Two Soldiers Killed, 12 Wounded in Separatist Shelling.

Newsmax. US Prepared to Sanction Russian Elites Close to Putin If Russia Invades Ukraine.

Newsmax. US Sees No Sign Russia De-escalating Troop Buildup: State Dept.

Newsmax. US to Announce Sanctions Against Russia Tuesday With Allies.

Newsmax. Western Leaders: Russian Troops Move Into East Ukraine.

New York Times. Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion.

Reuters. Analysis: Putin moves on Donbass but signals deeper designs on Ukraine.

Reuters. As sanctions start, Russia’s trade flow shifting towards China.

Reuters. Explainer: Western sanctions on banks only scratch surface of Fortress Russia.

Reuters. Explainer: Why is Russia’s Putin so focused on Ukraine?

Reuters. Japan imposes sanctions on Russia over actions in Ukraine.

Reuters. NATO strengthens east European flank as Russia denounces ‘hysteria’.

Reuters. Poland and Lithuania say Ukraine deserves EU candidate status due to ‘current security challenges’.

Reuters. Russia evacuates diplomats from Ukraine, takes down mission flags.

Reuters. Ukraine starts drafting reservists aged 18-60 after president’s order.

Reuters. Ukraine to impose state of emergency but no martial law yet.

Reuters. Ukrainian politician mocks ‘stupid’ UK claims.

Reuters. U.S. and allies unveil more Russia sanctions but keep big guns in reserve.

Reuters. Factbox: Ukraine Crisis - Where will Putin stop?

Trib Live/ AP. Biden is ‘convinced’ Putin has decided to invade Ukraine.

Trib Live/ AP. Biden, Putin talk nearly an hour as alarm rises over Ukraine.

Trib Live/ AP. Officials: Russia at 70% of Ukraine military buildup.

Trib Live/ AP. Putin mulls independence of separatist Ukraine regions.

Trib Live/ AP. Senators move closer to deal on Russian sanctions bill.

Trib Live/ AP. U.S., Russia try to lower temperature in Ukraine crisis.

Trib Live/ AP. U.S.: Russia closer to invading Ukraine, agrees to meeting.

Trib Live/ AP. U.S. ramps up Ukraine warning, says Russia may invade any day.

Trib Live/ AP. U.S. says Russia preparing ‘false flag’ operation as pretext to invade Ukraine.

WSJ. After Early Foreign Policy Missteps, Biden’s Ukraine Strategy Leans on Diplomacy.

WSJ. Biden Approves Pentagon Plan to Help Americans Fleeing Ukraine if Russia Invades.

WSJ. Shelling Escalates Along Front Line Separating Ukraine and Pro-Russia Separatists.

WTAE. Ukraine crisis updates: What to know international tensions surrounding Ukraine.

Yahoo! Russian attack on Ukraine possible ‘any day’ but diplomacy still an option -White House.

Yahoo! With Russia poised to invade, many Ukrainians express doubts about the threat.

For a follow-up to this article, see Full-Scale Invasion.

Joe Biden Tweets During the First Year of His Failing Presidency,
Reversing Trump, while Dividing and Destroying America

Biden can be very disingenuous in his tweets and his claims about his various plans and polices. He thinks they are all grand and good for the country. But in fact, it is those very plans and policies that is causing his presidency to be failing. Those plans and polices are also dividing and destroying American. Biden’s early actions also set the stage for more failures later in his presidency, so it is important to remember them.

The above article was posted on this website on February 23, 2022.

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